NFC Playoff Picture

It is officially crunch time. What do we see happening? Who do we predict is going to make the playoffs? Let’s take the NFC first.  

NFC East. The game of the year is not the Cowboys at the Giants. The bigger game is this week, Philadelphia at Dallas. Here's why. The Giants will PROBABLY win at the Jets. If the Jets win that game and if Dallas beats the Eagles this week, Dallas clinches the division. If both of them win, THEN it is for all the marbles. But that requires those two things to happen. Neither are locks. Tthere is at least a possibility that the Jets beat the Giants, which would eliminate the Giants, then Big Blue will probably pack it in on New Years Day against the Boys. The door would be open for the Eagles to sneak into the playoffs. The prediction is going to be the Cowboys for one simple reason—the Cowboys basically have the easiest route to the division title. Any result here wouldn’t shock me. 

Moving on to the NFC North. Obviously Green Bay is going to win this division. Everyone says the loss takes some pressure off of them and makes it even easier for them now— don’t know about that. We think they had momentum and desire to go undefeated and this may take a little bit of wind out of their sails. AND, their o-line is real banged up and could be a major roadblock for Rodgers and the offense.  

Now to the competitive NFC South. New Orleans is the team there, the only thing they have to be afraid of is a trip to Candlestick or Lambeau in January. Maybe this year’s team will be different. Can they win in both places? Doubtful but we will see.  

Let's take a look at a much better than expected NFC West. The 49ers have this one wrapped up and have two easy games to finish out the schedule but they are not done yet. THEY HAVE TO WIN OUT. They cannot go to New Orleans to try to win a game. They just cannot do it. But at home, on the turf, it’s a different animal. I think the Niners, coming off of the big win against the Steelers, run the table to make for an interesting playoffs.  

The wild cards have been wrapped up more or less. Detroit is in and Atlanta is in. Atlanta actually is playing very well, they have a good formula. They’re a dangerous team. Just not sold on them particularly if they have to go to the northeast to play the Giants or the Eagles in round one. They should be hoping for a match-up with Dallas. As for Detroit—they could make some noise if they can just get a little bit of production on the ground. The NFC is so much stronger than the AFC this year in terms of the depth of their teams and of course with Green Bay at the top.

AFC Playoff Picture

This conference has weakened. The tide has now turned back in favor of the NFC. We will find out for sure in February though.

Let's start with the AFC East. New England has already clinched and probably will get the No. 1 seed in the bracket. The interesting thing is that the Patriots are probably better off playing in a dome or in some warm weather spot then at Foxboro. They obviously want to win home field and that would close their season on an eight game winning streak. That being said, the defense is just horrible. How can Bill not get this thing right? It's part personnel too. But man can Brady just light up the scoreboard. Try getting down 14-0 to them. We'll see what happens but the Patriots are going to be the betting favorite in the AFC but I still think it will be Baltimore or Pittsburgh. I just don't see New England beating both of these teams.

Next up is the AFC North. Baltimore or Pittsburgh? Baltimore, you know, could have run the table and finished 13-3 and gotten the No. 1 seed. Instead they lost but caught a big break when the Steelers lost too. There is no way they make that mistake again. They will finish 12-4 and win the AFC North and the potential No. 2 seed. Pittsburgh will obviously end up being the five seed. They should be focused on team healing going into the tournament.

As for the AFC South, Houston was the one team that you should feel bad for. The injuries are just so much and they still have 10 wins. Yates has done ok but he is still a late-round rookie quarterback. If they somehow could have run the table and gotten the one seed, then they would have at least gotten a chance. I don't think that they are going to go very far. If Houston wins out the No. 2 seed is their's.

That brings us to Denver in the AFC West. They kind of win by default here. They are going to win one of their next two and finish 9-7 here. Oakland doesn't have it in them.

For the Wild Card teams. We know Pittsburgh is going to be one of them. The Jets still feel like the other one. Even though we have them losing to the Giants, it's possible they can come out and run the ball down the throat of the G-Men. However, they can even lose to the Giants as long as they beat Miami in Week 17 and the Raiders lose one of their last two games and the Bengals lose to Baltimore in Week 17. So I'm still picking the Jets for the six seed. They will get crushed in Baltimore in round one. The Jets (or whoever is the six seed) desperately need Houston to lose one of their last two so that the Texans are the No. 3 seed instead of the Ravens.

Week 15 Odds and Ends Part 2

Chiefs at Packers- Shock of the year. I really thought Green Bay was headed for 19-0. I think they really wanted to go 16-0 too. I know the Jennings loss hurts a bit but still. That O-line is really beaten up and they are now down three starters. If Rodgers doesn't have the chance to work his magic that would be really sad. It's clear that in order to beat the Packers you just have to pressure him non-stop.

Lions at Raiders- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Once 7-4, Oakland is now EL FOLDO. How do you blow a 27-14 lead at home with six minutes left in the game. Terrible everything. Just folding. Detroit just keeps coming back. They are great at it. No team has overcome 13 point deficits like Detroit has this season. As for Megatron, it's close, but I think he is the best receiver in the league. If they had only not lost Leshoure before the season started, or even Best, this would be a scary, scary team. Instead I think they are one and done in the tournament. Maybe one win.

Patriots at Broncos- Well, I was waiting for this to happen and it certainly did. Denver did come out strong with the run until the Patriots figured them out. This says a lot about both teams. I think Denver gets a bit of confidence from this. Tebow is really unlike anything we've seen in this league and they are doing a good job of designing an offense around him. They literally, LITERALLY, have to work as a team on going no-huddle two-minute drill basically nearly every snap. They cannot put him under center. It's the only way they can play and be successful. This is a big, strong boy and he can deliver it just as well as he can take it. I think they make the playoffs, one and done though. As for New England- I've never seen a worse contrast then the one that exists between their offense and defense. Brady is unreal, the offense can't be stopped. But their defense cannot stop anybody. Even with that being said, the Patriots are going to be a real tough out in January. Still, one and done is possible, especially if they get Pittsburgh in the divisional round.


Jets at Eagles- Could the Jets have played any worse. Holmes? That was a pathetic exhibition. Jets were just horrible. They started off fine and held the Eagles. The Jets absolutely stunk up the joint. But they've done that before, the question is--will they bounce back like the last few years? I'm not so sure. I think they are in trouble. As for the Eagles, it could be scary if they get in. A lot of if's that I don't think will happen, but still.

Cardinals at Browns- Cardinals didn't play a real good game but I'll tell you one thing, my boy John Skelton was a great late round pick. I think he has been much better than Kolb, it's not even close. I don't think they'll have the guts to play Skelton over Kolb but they should. He's 5-1 as a starter and can really rifle the ball. Interesting team moving forward. Washington and Peterson, two guys I loved in the draft, are going to anchor that defense for years to come.

Chargers at Ravens- Ravens could have secured their first ever No. 1 seed if you won your last three games and what do you do? You go stink up the joint vs. San Diego. Granted the Chargers are playing quite well at this moment, but still. Flacco and crew just did not show up at all. 10 carries for Rice? What is that. Run it down their throat. In any event, the Ravens caught a big break with the Steelers' loss. As for the Chargers, I guess this is their classic December charge to save Norv. They would have had a much more realistic chance if the Bears didn't blow that game two weeks ago to Denver but as of now it looks like too much. For Chargers fans, they better hope that changes are made from teh top and they get rid of Turner and get someone who will be a bit tougher on that team.

Steelers at 49ers- We had the 49ers winning this one, but for them to just control and physically dominate Pittsburgh was shocking. It was just a beat down. The Steelers should do the smart thing--sit out Roethlisberger the next two games and let him prepare for the playoffs. Still have faith in them, they will be a scary, scary team in the playoffs. As for the 49ers--they desperately want to win their last two to get that bye and to avoid the dreaded trip to the Superdome to face the Saints.

NFL Week 15 Odds and Ends: Part 1

Falcons at Jaguars- As I thought, Atlanta is rounding into form. The Jags and Gabbert are just pathetic. I think Atlanta is going to be a very tough out in the playoffs this year. Another huge one for Julio Jones, maybe worth every bit of their "overpriced" draft pick trade for him. He is a true stud.


Cowboys at Bucs- Dallas put a whooping on Tampa. I dont know if Raheem Morris is fired at the end of the year but they have taken a giant step back. They have given up on the season. Freeman looks horrible. Dallas controls their own destiny--win their last two and they are in. Dallas is just so, so inconsistent and changes their colors so often you never know what to expect.


Panthers at Texans- Sort of an upset. I know it was Newton vs Yates but that whole concept of Houston playing hard. Playing good defense. Running the ball. WITH A NO. 1 SEED AT STAKE! They folded like a cheap suit. Doesn't bode well as they head into the playoffs. I still have a good amount of faith in them but they just have to play a very solid, clean game if they want to advance in the playoffs.


Redskins at Giants- I can't say how badly Coughlin needs to go. For a team that could have controlled their own destiny EVEN if they lost to the Jets this week. For them not to come out, after having beat Dallas the week before, and absolutely annihilate Washington-that's a reflection on the coach. Washington is playing hard and need to address the QB situation in the off-season.


Dolphins at Bills- I thought they were going to pack it in because of the situation (new coach, weather in Buffalo). Reggie Bush 205 yards, where did that come from?. Moore was solid. How do you think Buffalo feels about their $60-million dollar contract for Fitzpatrick right about now?


Seahawks at Bears- I almost feel bad for the Bears. I wasn't a huge fan of theirs at the beginning of the season but Cutler and Forte were playing great. When those two went down, the ship began to sink. Hanie isn't a second or a third string quarterback. He belongs with Palko somewhere else like the Arena League. Seattle defense played great, they are playing hard for Carroll. They NEED a quarterback.


Saints at Vikings- I mean what can you say? They are just so scary on offense its amazing. Brees is a magician. As for the Vikings, they packed it in a long time ago. What a waste of some great skill players on offense. I know Fraizer has only been there for a year but he is just not a good coach.


Bengals at Rams-Hey- the Bengals won a game they had to win. They didn't blow them out but they did what they needed to do. The Rams are a horrible team. Poor Bradford continues to get pounded. They got to do whatever they can to strengthen that offensive line. Also need to get Bradford another REAL playmaker on the outside.


Titans at Colts- SERIOUSLY MUNCHAK? ARE YOU SERIOUS? Maybe your biggest game of the year- a chance to get into playoff position. And what do you do? You lose to Indianapolis. HORRIBLE. HORRIBLE. HORRIBLE. As for the Colts, you hate to see any team go 0-16, maybe that saves Caldwell's job. If it did--poor Colts fans.

The NFL Totem Pole at the Quarter Point: The Detroit 2011 Version Division

We take a look at where the 32 NFL teams stand at the quarter mark of the season. Find out which teams are set to make a move, which teams are due for a fall and which teams are just stuck in neutral.   

The Detroit 2011 Version Division    

Indianapolis Colts- They will equal Detroit's 0-16 record of a couple of years ago. I will say this, it's better to be 0-16 then 5-11. That being said, when you look at this team and you see talent like Mathis and Freeney on defense. And Wayne, Clark, Addai, Brown, Gonzalez, Collie and Garcon, there really is no excuse for this team to be 0-12. I think they packed it in when Peyton got hurt. There has been a lot of talk by Archie, who has flip-flopped on his stance on a new quarterback. What they need to do is trade Peyton Manning. They need to draft, whoever they feel, is going to be the best quarterback moving forward for the Indianapolis Colts. Until you get these guys in and meet them, and see how they fit with your philosophy, you shouldn't make decision. Game film against bad teams shouldn't be enough in deciding who the leader of your franchise will be going forward. There has got to be a sense of creating a bidding war for Manning between Washington, Miami, Seattle, maybe even Tennessee, create something where you play these teams against each other and you get a lot for the twilight of Peyton's career. I mean look what Oakland gave up for Carson Palmer!!

 

The NFL Totem Pole at the Quarter Point: The No Excuses Division

We take a look at where the 32 NFL teams stand at the quarter mark of the season. Find out which teams are set to make a move, which teams are due for a fall and which teams are just stuck in neutral.  

The No Excuses Division

Minnesota Vikings- Ponder has played better than I thought that he would. He shows some promise. If the Vikings ever get an outdoor stadium, they'll be in trouble with Ponder. In the dome he has done okay. What has happened to their defense? Some of their draft picks in recent memory were just horrible. They really needed to retool their secondary and they failed to do so. I think they really have a long way to go. They are wasting the prime years of Adrian Peterson's career. 

Miami Dolphins- Have really played well in the second half of the year. Even Matt Moore has played better then expectations. Getting to throw to Brandon Marshall is a real joy for any quarterback. Reggie Bush has been ok, he surprised some people with his ability to run between the tackles. Their defense has been stout too. They are just thin, they are a thin group who is offensively challenged. It would have been better for them to lose enough games to make sure they got one of the big three quarterbacks (Luck, Barkley, RG3). 

St. Louis Rams- I can't figure them out. I know they got destroyed by injuries but for them to just regress so much under Steve Spagnuolo is just truly disappointing. I think he is going to get a pass and they are going to give him another year because of all of the injuries but he hasn't really developed the defense as much as I thought he would over three years. I just think they need to do a better job on that end, collectively. Some of their draft choices have been suspect. 

Jacksonville Jaguars- Finally got rid of Jack Del Rio who had worn out his welcome a long time ago. Their biggest problem is that they used the No. 10 pick on Gabbert and unless he makes some major improvements in the next off-season then he may turn out to be a bust. Thin offensive line, few quality wide receivers, they just need new fresh blodd and an infusion of talent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- I did predict, very accurately before the season started, that the Bucs would take a step back as a team. But a step back and a mile back are two different things. This team has really gone backwards. Morris really needs to figure out what has been going on. McCoy hasn't provided anything yet. Freeman has been just awful this year. Some of that has to be due to coaching. They aren't really taking advantage of their talent at the skill positions on offense.

The NFL Totem Pole at the Quarter Point: The Trying But No Talent Division

We take a look at where the 32 NFL teams stand at the quarter mark of the season. Find out which teams are set to make a move, which teams are due for a fall and which teams are just stuck in neutral.  

The Trying But No Talent Division

Seattle Seahawks- They aren't that untalented. Their biggest and main problem is the quarterback position and as we all know that is a big problem. Seattle does have some promising young players, particularly one of my favorites from the draft two years ago, Golden Tate. Earl Thomas is a beast as well, same for Kam Chancelor.

Washington Redskins- The more I see the more that I think time has passed Mike Shanahan by. He thinks he has John Elway and or Terrell Davis on his team and he doesn't. And their whole team identity is lost in the shuffle, its unclear what they are even trying to do. Yes they have a promising young back in Helu, a guy who I liked out of the draft. Same with Fred Davis a few years ago. They also got Ryan Kerrigan who was a guy I liked in this past year's draft. They are thin on the offensive line. They more than anybody desperately need a quarterback from this year's deep pool of passers. 

Carolina Panthers- I love Cam Newton. I think he is going to be a star for years. He has a great attitude, great temprament. People forget how big he is at 6'5'' 260 pounds. He is tough to take down and most surprisingly he is really accurate. The sad part is that Steve Smith is getting older because he and Newton have been tremendous together. I like some of their defenders, they just need some more depth and I don't quite understand why they have not been able to run the ball more effectively with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams which should be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. Maybe it's the line.

Arizona Cardinals- I kind of like some of them. I love Darryl Washington, who I think is playing at an all-pro level. I had him ranked way up there in the draft two years ago. Giants fans know how much I was recommending on ultimatenyg.com that the Giants take Washington and it is a decision they make regret for years to come. I think they overpaid for Kolb, not only with the money but also by giving up a developing all-pro cornerback who had begun to thrive in your system. 

Cleveland Browns- Their biggest problem is that Mike Holmgrem suffers from a "God-complex" and thinks that he can do anything. I like McCoy, but let's face it. He is just not strong-armed enough to play that close to Lake Erie as the winter approaches with the wind and the cold. He's a tough kid and can take a pounding but we will see what happens with him. 

Kansas City Chiefs- They're a little bit different than the others only because I feel that they have been a bit snake bit this year with injuries. Everyone knows how much I loved Eric Berry out of the draft, for them to lose him is an absolute disaster for that defense, who still hasn't played that bad. To lose Jamaal Charles, who let's face it, may never be the same again, is something different. Losing Cassell is pretty brutal too. They have plenty of talent. Hali has been better than I could have ever predicted for Kansas City. They lack a bit of depth. They lost Moeaki who I thought was a steal in last year's draft in the 4th round. He is one of the best all-around tight ends in the league.